Thi truong chung khoan¶
Tong quan
Chung khoan la thi truong lon nhat, thanh khoan nhat the gioi. S&P 500 dat dinh lich su ~6.000 diem cuoi 2024, dan dat boi nhom Magnificent 7. VN-Index phuc hoi vung 1.200-1.300 sau khung hoang 2022.
Muc luc¶
- 1. Co phieu la gi - Mua mot phan doanh nghiep
- 2. San giao dich chung khoan
- 3. Chi so chung khoan quan trong
- 4. Cach dinh gia co ban
- 5. Phan loai co phieu
- 6. IPO - Phat hanh co phieu lan dau
- 7. Bull Market vs Bear Market
- 8. Margin - Giao dich ky quy
- 9. ETF - Quy chi so
- 10. Thi truong chung khoan Viet Nam
- 11. Tong ket
1. Co phieu la gi - Mua mot phan doanh nghiep¶
Khai niem don gian nhat¶
Co phieu (stock/share) la bang chung ban so huu mot phan cua mot cong ty.
Vi du de hieu
- Cong ty Vinamilk co tong cong ~2 ty co phieu
- Neu ban mua 1.000 co phieu Vinamilk, ban so huu 1.000/2.000.000.000 = 0,00005% cong ty
- Ban la co dong (shareholder) cua Vinamilk
- Ban duoc huong loi khi Vinamilk kinh doanh tot (gia co phieu tang, nhan co tuc)
Tai sao cong ty phat hanh co phieu?¶
Cong ty can tien de:
- Mo rong kinh doanh, xay nha may moi
- Nghien cuu san pham moi
- Tra no
- Tuyen nhan su
Thay vi vay ngan hang (phai tra lai), cong ty ban mot phan so huu cho nha dau tu.
Nha dau tu kiem tien tu co phieu bang cach nao?¶
- Mua co phieu VNM gia 70.000 VND
- Gia tang len 90.000 VND
- Ban di, lai 20.000 VND/co phieu (28,6%)
- Cong ty kinh doanh co loi nhuan
- Chia mot phan loi nhuan cho co dong
- Vi du: Vinamilk tra co tuc ~3.500 VND/co phieu/nam => ty suat co tuc ~5%
Quyen cua co dong¶
| Quyen | Mo ta |
|---|---|
| Quyen bieu quyet | Bo phieu tai Dai hoi co dong (1 co phieu = 1 phieu bau) |
| Quyen nhan co tuc | Duoc chia loi nhuan neu cong ty quyet dinh chi tra |
| Quyen chuyen nhuong | Ban co phieu cho nguoi khac tren san |
| Quyen thong tin | Duoc biet tinh hinh kinh doanh (bao cao tai chinh cong khai) |
| Quyen uu tien mua | Khi cong ty phat hanh them co phieu moi |
2. San giao dich chung khoan¶
San giao dich la gi?¶
San giao dich la noi nguoi mua va nguoi ban co phieu gap nhau. Ngay nay, hau het giao dich dien ra dien tu.
San quoc te quan trong¶
- Lon nhat the gioi theo von hoa (~28.000 ty USD, 2024)
- Thanh lap nam 1792 tai pho Wall Street, New York
- Niem yet cac cong ty lon: Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson
- Co san giao dich vat ly (trading floor) noi tieng
- San cong nghe lon nhat (~25.000 ty USD, 2024)
- Hoan toan dien tu (khong co trading floor vat ly)
- Niem yet: Apple, Microsoft, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, Meta, Tesla, NVIDIA
- Tap trung vao cong nghe va tang truong
- Noi niem yet cua Magnificent 7 - nhom co phieu thong tri thi truong 2023-2024
| Tieu chi | NYSE | NASDAQ |
|---|---|---|
| Phong cach | Truyen thong, blue chip | Cong nghe, tang truong |
| Gio giao dich | 9:30-16:00 ET | 9:30-16:00 ET |
| Dieu kien niem yet | Khat khe hon | Linh hoat hon |
| Vi du | JPMorgan, Coca-Cola | Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla |
| Von hoa (2024) | ~28.000 ty USD | ~25.000 ty USD |
San Viet Nam¶
- San lon nhat Viet Nam
- Ma co phieu: 3 chu cai (VNM, VIC, FPT, VHM, HPG)
- Niem yet cac cong ty lon nhat
- Gio giao dich: 9:00-11:30, 13:00-14:45
- San nho hon HOSE
- Ma co phieu: 3 chu cai (SHB, PVS, CEO)
- Cung giao dich trai phieu chinh phu
- San giao dich co phieu chua niem yet chinh thuc
- Thuong la cac cong ty nho hon hoac moi dang ky giao dich
- Thanh khoan thap hon HOSE va HNX
3. Chi so chung khoan quan trong¶
Chi so la gi?¶
Chi so chung khoan (stock index) la con so phan anh muc gia trung binh cua mot nhom co phieu, dung de do hieu suat cua thi truong hoac nganh.
%%{init: {"theme": "base"}}%%
flowchart LR
A[Chi so chung khoan] --> B[S&P 500<br/>500 cong ty lon Mỹ]
A --> C[DJIA<br/>30 blue chip]
A --> D[NASDAQ<br/>~3.000 co phieu tech]
A --> E[VN-Index<br/>Toan bo HOSE]
B --> F[~6.000 diem<br/>ATH 2024]
E --> G[1.200-1.300<br/>Phuc hoi 2024]Chi so quoc te¶
S&P 500¶
- 500 cong ty lon nhat niem yet tai My
- Chi so quan trong nhat the gioi - dai dien cho kinh te My
- Tinh theo von hoa (market-cap weighted): Cong ty lon anh huong nhieu hon
- Top cong ty 2024: Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet
- Loi nhuan trung binh dai han: ~10%/nam (bao gom co tuc)
Insight: Magnificent 7 thong tri 2023-2024
Magnificent 7 gom: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet/Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA). Nhom nay chiem ~30% tong von hoa S&P 500 va dong gop phan lon tang truong 2023-2024. Rieng NVIDIA tang ~240% nam 2024 nho AI boom, von hoa vuot 3.000 ty USD, tro thanh cong ty gia tri nhat the gioi tai mot thoi diem.
S&P 500 dat dinh lich su
S&P 500 dat moc ~6.000 diem cuoi 2024, tang ~25% trong nam. Dong luc chinh: AI boom (NVIDIA, Microsoft), Fed bat dau giam lai suat 9/2024, nen kinh te My "soft landing" thanh cong.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)¶
- 30 cong ty blue chip lon nhat My
- Chi so lau doi nhat (tu 1896)
- Tinh theo gia (price-weighted): co phieu gia cao anh huong nhieu hon
- Dat moc 45.000 diem cuoi 2024
NASDAQ Composite¶
- Tat ca co phieu tren san NASDAQ (~3.000+)
- Tap trung cong nghe => bien dong manh hon S&P 500
- Dat dinh ~20.000 diem cuoi 2024 nho AI rally
Chi so khac tren the gioi¶
| Chi so | Quoc gia | Dac diem | Muc 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | Anh | 100 cong ty lon nhat London | ~8.200 |
| DAX | Duc | 40 cong ty lon nhat Duc | ~20.000 |
| Nikkei 225 | Nhat | 225 cong ty lon nhat Tokyo | ~40.000 (dinh 34 nam!) |
| Hang Seng | Hong Kong | Blue chip HK + Trung Quoc | ~20.000 (yeu) |
| Shanghai Composite | Trung Quoc | Tat ca san Thuong Hai | ~3.000 |
Insight: Nikkei 225 pha ky luc 34 nam
Nikkei 225 vuot dinh 40.000 diem dau 2024, lan dau tien vuot qua muc dinh nam 1989. Dong luc: dong yen yeu giup xuat khau, cai cach quan tri doanh nghiep (TSE yeu cau tang ROE), va dong von nuoc ngoai do vao Warren Buffett mua co phieu Nhat tu 2020.
VN-Index¶
- Chi so chinh cua thi truong Viet Nam (san HOSE)
- Tinh theo von hoa (market-cap weighted)
- Bao gom tat ca co phieu tren HOSE
- Top anh huong: VIC (Vingroup), VHM (Vinhomes), VCB (Vietcombank), FPT, HPG (Hoa Phat)
FPT - Ngoi sao cua thi truong Viet Nam 2024
Co phieu FPT tang ~80% nam 2024, von hoa vuot 10 ty USD, tro thanh cong ty cong nghe lon nhat Viet Nam. Dong luc: don hang AI/DX tu Nhat Ban, My tang manh; loi nhuan tang ~20%/nam deu dan.
Chi tiet: Moc VN-Index lich su
| Nam | VN-Index | Su kien |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 100 | Khai truong san |
| 2007 | 1.170 | Dinh bong bong |
| 2009 | 235 | Day khung hoang |
| 2018 | 1.200 | Dinh moi |
| 2020 | 660 | COVID crash |
| 2022 Q1 | 1.528 | Dinh lich su |
| 2022 Q4 | 873 | Day (khung hoang trai phieu) |
| 2023 | 1.130 | Phuc hoi |
| 2024 | 1.200-1.300 | Phuc hoi tiep tuc, cho nang hang |
4. Cach dinh gia co ban¶
Khi mua co phieu, ban can biet gia dang re hay dat. Duoi day la cac chi so dinh gia co ban nhat.
%%{init: {"theme": "base"}}%%
flowchart LR
A[Dinh gia co phieu] --> B[P/E<br/>Gia / Loi nhuan]
A --> C[P/B<br/>Gia / Gia tri so sach]
A --> D[EPS<br/>Loi nhuan / Co phieu]
A --> E[Dividend Yield<br/>Co tuc / Gia]
B --> F{Re hay Dat?}
C --> F
D --> G{Tang truong?}
E --> H{Thu nhap on dinh?}4.1. P/E (Price-to-Earnings Ratio)¶
Y nghia: Ban phai tra bao nhieu dong cho 1 dong loi nhuan.
Vi du
- Co phieu FPT gia 150.000 VND (2024), EPS = 10.000 VND
- P/E = 150.000 / 10.000 = 15 lan
- Nghia la: Ban tra 15 dong cho moi 1 dong loi nhuan
Cach danh gia:
| P/E | Danh gia chung |
|---|---|
| < 10 | Re (hoac cong ty co van de) |
| 10-20 | Hop ly |
| 20-40 | Dat (ky vong tang truong cao) |
| > 40 | Rat dat (co phieu tang truong nong) |
Luu y
P/E chi co y nghia khi so sanh cung nganh. Co phieu tech thuong co P/E cao (30-50) vi tang truong nhanh. Co phieu ngan hang thuong P/E thap (8-15). NVIDIA co P/E >60 nam 2024 nhung van duoc mua manh vi toc do tang truong AI cuc ky nhanh.
4.2. P/B (Price-to-Book Ratio)¶
Y nghia: So sanh gia thi truong voi gia tri tai san rong (tong tai san - no) cua cong ty.
- P/B < 1: Gia thi truong thap hon gia tri so sach => co the "re" (hoac cong ty co van de)
- P/B = 1-3: Binh thuong
- P/B > 3: Dat (thi truong ky vong cao vao tai san vo hinh: thuong hieu, cong nghe)
Phu hop nhat cho: Ngan hang, bat dong san, cong ty tai san nang.
4.3. EPS (Earnings Per Share)¶
Y nghia: Moi co phieu "kiem duoc" bao nhieu tien.
EPS tang qua cac nam => cong ty dang kinh doanh tot hon => tin hieu tich cuc.
4.4. Dividend Yield (Ty suat co tuc)¶
So sanh
- Dividend yield > lai suat ngan hang => co phieu hap dan hon gui tiet kiem (chua tinh tang gia)
- Cong ty tra co tuc deu dan thuong la cong ty on dinh, da truong thanh
- Cong ty tang truong (tech) thuong khong tra co tuc (giu lai de tai dau tu)
- Magnificent 7 hau nhu khong tra co tuc (ngoai tru Apple va Microsoft moi bat dau tra)
Tong hop¶
| Chi so | Cau hoi tra loi | Uu tien cho |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | Gia so voi loi nhuan? | Moi loai co phieu |
| P/B | Gia so voi tai san? | Ngan hang, BDS |
| EPS | Cong ty kiem bao nhieu? | Danh gia tang truong |
| Dividend Yield | Nhan bao nhieu co tuc? | Dau tu thu nhap |
5. Phan loai co phieu¶
5.1. Blue Chip¶
Co phieu cua cac cong ty lon nhat, on dinh nhat, uy tin nhat.
Dac diem:
- Von hoa lon (thuong >1 ty USD)
- Loi nhuan on dinh qua nhieu nam
- Thuong tra co tuc deu dan
- Thanh khoan cao (de mua ban)
- It bien dong so voi co phieu nho
Vi du:
- My: Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, JPMorgan
- Viet Nam: VCB (Vietcombank), VNM (Vinamilk), FPT, VIC (Vingroup), HPG (Hoa Phat)
5.2. Penny Stock¶
Rui ro: Penny Stock
Co phieu gia rat thap, thuong duoi 5 USD (My) hoac duoi 5.000 VND (Viet Nam). Penny stock cuc ky rui ro: von hoa nho, thanh khoan thap, bien dong cuc ky manh, de bi thao tung gia. Phan lon la cong ty nho, kinh doanh kho khan. Nhieu nguoi moi bi hap dan vi gia re nhung thuong mat tien.
5.3. Growth Stock (Co phieu tang truong)¶
Co phieu cua cong ty tang truong nhanh, doanh thu va loi nhuan tang manh qua cac nam.
Dac diem:
- P/E cao (thi truong tra gia cho tang truong tuong lai)
- Thuong khong tra co tuc (giu lai tien de tai dau tu)
- Bien dong manh
- Nhay cam voi lai suat (lai suat tang => growth stock giam manh)
Insight: NVIDIA - Bieu tuong Growth Stock 2023-2024
NVIDIA la vi du dien hinh nhat cua growth stock thanh cong. Tu cong ty chip do hoa, NVIDIA tro thanh nha cung cap chip AI so 1 the gioi. Doanh thu tang tu 27 ty USD (2023) len ~130 ty USD (2025E). Co phieu tang ~800% tu dau 2023 den cuoi 2024. Von hoa dat 3.400 ty USD, co luc vuot Apple la cong ty gia tri nhat the gioi.
5.4. Value Stock (Co phieu gia tri)¶
Co phieu dang giao dich duoi gia tri thuc, theo danh gia cua nha dau tu.
Dac diem:
- P/E thap so voi nganh
- P/B thap
- Thuong tra co tuc tot
- Cong ty on dinh nhung tang truong cham
- It "sexy" nhung co the sinh loi on dinh
So sanh Growth vs Value¶
| Tieu chi | Growth | Value |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | Cao (>25) | Thap (<15) |
| Co tuc | It/khong | Thuong co |
| Bien dong | Cao | Thap hon |
| Lai suat tang | Bat loi | It bi anh huong |
| Thi truong tang | Thuong outperform | Thuong underperform |
| Thi truong giam | Giam nhieu hon | Giam it hon |
| Hieu suat 2023-2024 | Vuot troi (AI boom) | Kem hon |
Growth vs Value: Tranh luan kinh dien
Ca hai deu co giai doan outperform. Warren Buffett (nha dau tu vi dai nhat) thien ve value. Peter Lynch ket hop ca hai. 2023-2024 la giai doan growth thong tri nho AI, nhung chu ky co the doi chieu bat cu luc nao.
6. IPO - Phat hanh co phieu lan dau¶
IPO la gi?¶
IPO (Initial Public Offering) la lan dau tien mot cong ty ban co phieu ra cong chung tren san chung khoan.
Quy trinh IPO¶
%%{init: {"theme": "base"}}%%
flowchart LR
A[Cong ty tu nhan] --> B[Thue ngan hang<br/>dau tu tu van]
B --> C[Dinh gia &<br/>nop ho so SEC]
C --> D[Roadshow<br/>gioi thieu NDT]
D --> E[Ngay IPO<br/>len san]
E --> F[Cong ty<br/>nhan tien]Tai sao cong ty IPO?¶
| Ly do | Giai thich |
|---|---|
| Huy dong von | Nhan hang ty USD de mo rong kinh doanh |
| Thanh khoan cho co dong sang lap | Founder/nha dau tu som co the ban co phieu |
| Tang uy tin | Cong ty niem yet duoc tin tuong hon |
| Thu hut nhan tai | Tra luong bang co phieu (stock options) |
IPO noi tieng¶
Chi tiet: IPO lich su & 2023-2024
| Cong ty | Nam IPO | Gia IPO | Von hoa 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 1980 | 22 USD | ~3.500 ty USD |
| 2004 | 85 USD | ~2.200 ty USD | |
| Facebook (Meta) | 2012 | 38 USD | ~1.500 ty USD |
| Alibaba | 2014 | 68 USD | ~200 ty USD |
| ARM | 2023 | 51 USD | ~180 ty USD |
| Instacart | 2023 | 30 USD | ~10 ty USD |
| Birkenstock | 2023 | 46 USD | ~10 ty USD |
Rui ro khi mua IPO
- Dinh gia co the qua cao: Ngan hang tu van muon gia cao nhat co the
- Thieu lich su: Cong ty moi niem yet it du lieu de phan tich
- Lock-up period: Sau IPO 90-180 ngay, noi bo duoc ban => ap luc giam gia
- Hype (thoi phong): Nhieu IPO duoc quang cao ram ro nhung co phieu giam sau do
Rui ro: Vi du that bai
WeWork dinh IPO 2019 voi gia tri 47 ty USD, nhung lo van de quan tri => hoan IPO, sau do len san qua SPAC voi gia tri chi ~9 ty, cuoi cung pha san 2023. Thi truong IPO 2022-2023 dong bang do lai suat cao, phuc hoi nhe 2024.
7. Bull Market vs Bear Market¶
Bull Market (Thi truong tang gia)¶
Bull market = thi truong tang it nhat 20% tu day gan nhat.
Dac diem:
- Gia co phieu tang lien tuc
- Kinh te tang truong, doanh nghiep lai tot
- Nha dau tu lac quan, FOMO
- Tien do vao thi truong
Tai sao goi "Bull" (bo)? Vi bo tan cong bang cach huc sung len tren - bieu tuong cho gia tang.
Bear Market (Thi truong giam gia)¶
Bear market = thi truong giam it nhat 20% tu dinh gan nhat.
Dac diem:
- Gia co phieu giam lien tuc
- Kinh te suy thoai hoac lo ngai suy thoai
- Nha dau tu bi quan, ban thao
- Tien rut khoi thi truong
Tai sao goi "Bear" (gau)? Vi gau tan cong bang cach va tu tren xuong - bieu tuong cho gia giam.
Lich su Bull/Bear Market cua S&P 500¶
Chi tiet: Lich su Bull/Bear Market
| Giai doan | Loai | Thoi gian | Bien do |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-2007 | Bull | ~5 nam | +101% |
| 2007-2009 | Bear | ~1,5 nam | -57% |
| 2009-2020 | Bull | ~11 nam | +400% |
| 2020 (COVID) | Bear | ~1 thang | -34% |
| 2020-2021 | Bull | ~1,5 nam | +114% |
| 2022 | Bear | ~9 thang | -25% |
| 2022-2024 | Bull | Dang tiep dien | +70%+ |
Insight: Bull market 2022-2024
Bull market bat dau tu thang 10/2022 la mot trong nhung dot phuc hoi manh nhat lich su. S&P 500 tang ~70% trong 2 nam, tu ~3.500 len ~6.000. Dong luc chinh: AI revolution (NVIDIA, Microsoft Copilot, ChatGPT), Fed pivot giam lai suat 9/2024, va nen kinh te My tang truong bat ngo manh.
Bai hoc quan trong¶
4 bai hoc tu lich su
- Bear market ngan hon bull market: Trung binh bear market keo dai 9-18 thang, bull market 3-11 nam
- Thoi gian o trong thi truong > thoi diem vao thi truong: "Time in the market beats timing the market"
- Bear market = co hoi mua: Neu ban co tam nhin dai han, mua khi thi truong giam manh thuong mang lai loi nhuan tot
- Khong ai du doan chinh xac dinh/day: Ngay ca chuyen gia cung thuong sai
8. Margin - Giao dich ky quy¶
Margin la gi?¶
Margin = vay tien tu cong ty chung khoan de mua them co phieu, dung chinh co phieu da mua lam tai san dam bao.
Cach hoat dong¶
Vi du margin
Neu co phieu tang 20%:
- Ban co 100 trieu VND tien that
- Cong ty CK cho vay them 100 trieu VND (margin 1:1)
- Mua co phieu tri gia 200 trieu VND
- Gia tri: 200 trieu x 1,2 = 240 trieu
- Tra lai margin: 100 trieu + lai vay
- Loi nhuan: ~38 trieu tren von 100 trieu = ~38% (thay vi 20%)
Neu co phieu giam 20%:
- Gia tri: 200 trieu x 0,8 = 160 trieu
- Van phai tra 100 trieu margin + lai vay
- Lo: ~42 trieu tren von 100 trieu = ~42% (thay vi 20%)
Margin Call¶
Khi gia co phieu giam qua nhieu, ty le ky quy xuong duoi muc toi thieu => cong ty chung khoan yeu cau ban:
- Nap them tien de tang ty le ky quy, HOAC
- Ban bot co phieu de tra no
Neu ban khong dap ung, cong ty chung khoan se ban cuong buc (force sell).
Force sell - Vong xoay chet choc¶
%%{init: {"theme": "base"}}%%
flowchart LR
A[Thi truong giam] --> B[Margin call<br/>hang loat]
B --> C[Ban thao /<br/>Force sell]
C --> D[Thi truong<br/>giam them]
D --> ARui ro: Khung hoang margin VN 2022
Day chinh la dieu xay ra o Viet Nam cuoi 2022: thi truong giam manh, margin call hang loat, force sell tao vong xoay day VN-Index tu 1.500 xuong 873 (-43%). Nhieu nha dau tu mat toan bo tai san, tham chi no nan.
Loi khuyen ve Margin¶
| Nen | Khong nen |
|---|---|
| Chi dung margin nho (<30% tong gia tri) | Margin toi da de "all-in" |
| Chi margin co phieu blue chip thanh khoan cao | Margin co phieu penny, thanh khoan thap |
| Co ke hoach cat lo ro rang | "Om" co phieu margin khi thua lo |
| Hieu ro lai suat margin (12-15%/nam o VN) | Quen tinh chi phi lai vay |
Canh bao nghiem tuc
Neu ban la nguoi moi, KHONG NEN dung margin cho den khi co kinh nghiem it nhat 2-3 nam.
9. ETF - Quy chi so¶
ETF la gi?¶
ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) la quy dau tu giao dich tren san chung khoan nhu mot co phieu.
Hieu don gian: Thay vi mua tung co phieu Apple, Microsoft, Google rieng le, ban mua 1 co phan ETF chua TAT CA cac co phieu do.
ETF pho bien nhat¶
| ETF | Theo doi | Phi quan ly | Dac diem |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | 0,09% | ETF lon nhat the gioi |
| QQQ | NASDAQ 100 | 0,20% | Tap trung tech |
| VOO | S&P 500 | 0,03% | Phi re nhat |
| VTI | Toan bo thi truong My | 0,03% | Da dang nhat |
| VEA | Thi truong phat trien (tru My) | 0,05% | Da dang quoc te |
| VWO | Thi truong moi noi | 0,08% | Rui ro cao hon |
| GLD | Vang | 0,40% | ETF vang |
Insight: BTC ETF - Cuoc cach mang 2024
11 Bitcoin spot ETF duoc SEC phe duyet thang 1/2024, la su kien lon nhat trong lich su ETF. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) tro thanh ETF tang truong nhanh nhat lich su, dat 50 ty USD AUM chi trong 1 nam. Day la cau noi giua tai chinh truyen thong va tien ma hoa.
Tai sao ETF pho bien?¶
- Da dang hoa tuc thi: 1 co phan ETF = so huu hang tram co phieu
- Phi re: Phi quan ly 0,03-0,20%/nam (so voi quy chu dong 1-2%/nam)
- Don gian: Khong can phan tich tung co phieu
- Hieu qua: Nghien cuu cho thay ~90% quy chu dong KHONG thang duoc ETF theo doi S&P 500 trong dai han
ETF tai Viet Nam¶
| ETF | Theo doi | Mo ta |
|---|---|---|
| VFMVN30 | VN30 Index | 30 co phieu lon nhat san HOSE |
| FUEVFVND | VN Diamond | Co phieu hap dan nha dau tu nuoc ngoai |
| FUESSVFL | VNFin Lead | Co phieu tai chinh hang dau |
Loi khuyen cua Warren Buffett
"Hau het nha dau tu nen mua ETF S&P 500 chi phi thap va giu dai han. Day la cach dau tu tot nhat cho da so moi nguoi."
10. Thi truong chung khoan Viet Nam¶
10.1. Tong quan¶
- Thanh lap: Nam 2000 (san HOSE mo cua ngay 20/07/2000 voi 2 co phieu)
- Von hoa: ~220 ty USD (2024)
- So cong ty niem yet: ~1.600 (ca HOSE, HNX, UPCoM)
- Phan loai: Thi truong can bien (Frontier Market), dang phan dau nang hang len Thi truong moi noi (Emerging Market)
10.2. Dac diem rieng¶
Band gia (Bien do dao dong gia)¶
Thi truong Viet Nam co gioi han tang/giam trong ngay:
| San | Bien do toi da |
|---|---|
| HOSE | +/- 7% |
| HNX | +/- 10% |
| UPCoM | +/- 15% |
- Tim (tran): Tang het bien do (+7%)
- Xanh: Tang gia
- Vang (tham chieu): Gia tham chieu (gia dong cua hom truoc)
- Do: Giam gia
- Xanh lam (san): Giam het bien do (-7%)
- My: Khong co band gia (co phieu co the tang/giam bao nhieu cung duoc trong 1 ngay)
- My/VN: Xanh = tang, do = giam
- Trung Quoc, Nhat Ban: Do = tang, xanh = giam (nguoc lai!)
T+2 (Thanh toan sau 2 ngay)¶
Khi ban mua co phieu, ban phai doi 2 ngay lam viec moi co the ban.
- My: T+1 (tu 5/2024, truoc do la T+2)
- Viet Nam: T+2 (dang huong toi T+0 khi nang hang thi truong)
Gio giao dich¶
| Phien | Thoi gian | Mo ta |
|---|---|---|
| ATO | 9:00 - 9:15 | Khop lenh mo cua |
| Phien sang | 9:15 - 11:30 | Khop lenh lien tuc |
| Nghi trua | 11:30 - 13:00 | Khong giao dich |
| Phien chieu | 13:00 - 14:30 | Khop lenh lien tuc |
| ATC | 14:30 - 14:45 | Khop lenh dong cua |
10.3. Nang hang thi truong¶
Tai sao nang hang quan trong?
Viet Nam dang no luc nang hang tu Frontier Market len Emerging Market (theo FTSE Russell va MSCI).
- Cac quy dau tu lon toan cau (hang nghin ty USD) chi duoc dau tu vao Emerging Market tro len
- Nang hang => dong von ngoai do vao => co phieu Viet Nam tang gia
- Uoc tinh: 5-10 ty USD von ngoai moi co the do vao
Rao can chinh
- Quy trinh mo tai khoan cho nha dau tu nuoc ngoai phuc tap
- Gioi han so huu nuoc ngoai (foreign ownership limit)
- He thong thanh toan T+2 (can chuyen sang T+0)
- Tien ky quy truoc giao dich (pre-funding)
- FTSE co the nang hang VN len Emerging Market som nhat 9/2025, MSCI co the muon hon (2026-2027)
10.4. Bat dau dau tu chung khoan Viet Nam¶
Buoc 1: Mo tai khoan tai cong ty chung khoan (SSI, VPS, VNDS, HSC, Mirae Asset, v.v.)
Buoc 2: Nap tien vao tai khoan chung khoan
Buoc 3: Dat lenh mua/ban tren app hoac website
Buoc 4: Theo doi danh muc
Chi phi giao dich:
- Phi mua/ban: ~0,15-0,25% gia tri giao dich
- Thue ban: 0,1% gia tri ban
- Khong co thue thu nhap von (capital gain tax) rieng
11. Tong ket¶
Ban do tu duy thi truong chung khoan¶
%%{init: {"theme": "base"}}%%
flowchart LR
subgraph TANG["Thi truong TANG khi"]
A1[GDP tang truong]
A2[Lai suat giam]
A3[EPS tang]
A4[Von ngoai vao]
A5[Tam ly lac quan]
end
subgraph GIAM["Thi truong GIAM khi"]
B1[GDP giam]
B2[Lai suat tang]
B3[EPS giam]
B4[Von ngoai rut]
B5[Bat on]
end
TANG --> C[BULL MARKET]
GIAM --> D[BEAR MARKET]Nguyen tac dau tu cho nguoi moi¶
10 nguyen tac vang
- Hoc truoc, dau tu sau: Doc sach, hoc khoa co ban truoc khi bo tien that
- Bat dau nho: Dau tu so tien nho de "hoc phi", khong bo het tien tiet kiem
- Da dang hoa: Khong bo tat ca vao 1-2 co phieu. ETF la lua chon tot
- Dau tu dai han: Lich su cho thay mua va giu dai han thuong tot hon luot song
- DCA: Mua deu dan (hang thang) thay vi co doan day
- Khong dung margin cho den khi that su co kinh nghiem
- Kiem soat cam xuc: Khong FOMO khi tang, khong panic sell khi giam
- Hieu nhung gi ban mua: Dau tu vao cong ty/nganh ban hieu
- Chi phi quan trong: Chon cong ty chung khoan phi re, chon ETF phi thap
- Kien nhan: "Thi truong chung khoan la cong cu chuyen tien tu nguoi thieu kien nhan sang nguoi kien nhan." - Warren Buffett
Day la bai cuoi trong chuoi "Thi truong cu the". Quay lai: Vang | Dau mo | USD va Ngoai hoi | Tien ma hoa